New research from the University of Exeter has found it will be economically unsustainable by 2080 for many areas across Latin America and the Caribbean to continue growing bananas for export, because of rising temperatures caused by climate change.
Bananas are a key export crop worth $11 billion (£8.9 billion) annually and are crucial for the economies of many countries. Yet in just over half a century, 60 per cent of the regions currently producing bananas will struggle to grow the fruit unless there are urgent interventions to tackle climate change.
Countries such as Colombia and Costa Rica will be the most negatively impacted as they are expected to become too hot for optimal cultivation. Ecuador and parts of Brazil are among the few areas to remain as important producers, as climate change is projected to be less severe there.
While climate change will alter the geographical locations most suited for crop production, adaptation to these new conditions may be constrained by soil characteristics and socio-economic factors, such as availability of labour and export infrastructure. Most banana production occurs near densely populated areas and ports, limiting the potential for relocation to more suitable regions.
“Our findings are a stark reminder that climate change is not just an environmental issue but a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods. Without substantial investment in adaptation, including irrigation and heat-tolerant banana varieties, the future of export banana production looks uncertain.
Bananas are one of the world’s most important fruits, not only for consumers but for millions of workers in producing countries. It’s crucial we act now to safeguard the industry against the dual threats of climate change and emerging diseases.” – Professor Dan Bebber from the University of Exeter who led the study
The researchers developed a new method using satellite imagery to map banana production in Latin America and the Caribbean at very high resolution and then estimated the climate under which bananas are preferentially grown. Their findings showed climate change will reduce the best areas for banana growth and yields in many important producer countries, as well as increasing worker exposure to extreme temperatures.
The researchers propose several adaptation strategies, including expanding irrigation infrastructure, breeding heat- and drought-tolerant banana varieties, and supporting banana producers to manage climate risks.
The study titled Socioeconomic Constraints to Climate Change Adaptation in a Tropical Export Crop is published in Nature Food and was funded by the Global Food Security Programme and Horizon 2020.
Photo: Lotte Löhr on Unsplash
